Iran has redirected shipping through its territorial waters near Larak Island, avoiding international corridors in Omani waters. Tankers sometimes navigate without tracking signals, while others with Chinese, Turkish, Indian, and Pakistani flags are permitted. Most companies avoid the area due to attacks on at least 17 ships since February. Lloyd’s List Intelligence reported only 89 ships passed through the strait between March 1 and 15, down from 100-135 daily before the war.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has fortified islands like Abu Musa, which Nadimi describes as a 'mini missile city' with underground bunkers, drone bases, and missile batteries. Farur Island houses an IRGC special operations unit trained for clandestine actions, including targeting yachts. Despite damage to its conventional navy, the IRGC retains strong asymmetric capabilities, such as small boat swarms and submersibles.
Experts say Iran aims to prolong the conflict, not seek quick victory. Professor Mehran Kamrava notes that Iran sees survival as a form of success, gradually wearing down U.S. and Israeli resolve. The IRGC follows a measured escalation strategy, using satellite imagery and intelligence to adjust its operations.
Leadership in Iran remains unstable. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed early in the war, and his son Mojtaba, now leader, has been absent. Ali Larijani, a key power broker, was also killed. However, the regime is designed to function without top leadership. Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the IRGC Navy, is seen as critical to maintaining command cohesion.
Gulf states face growing pressure as Iran targets Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Manama, viewing them as silent partners in U.S.-Israeli campaigns. Qatar and the UAE have credited European defense cooperation in intercepting strikes, signaling a shift toward the EU as a more reliable partner. Turkey and Oman are attempting to mediate, but the war's outcome remains uncertain.
Experts caution that while the U.S. and Israel can inflict damage, they cannot guarantee regime change. The Iranian people ultimately hold the key to the country's future.