As attention around the US election reaches a fever pitch, Polymarket is on track to be the ultimate victor regardless of who wins the presidency.
Just last week, Polymarket broke mainstream headlines as renowned prediction market analyst and writer Nate Silver joined the team as an advisor.
Now, the decentralized prediction market dapp on Polygon is hitting all-time highs in monthly trading volumes of $213 million, according to Dune. To put that in perspective, June racked up monthly trading volumes of $111 million, per the same chart.
Polymarket is quite possibly crypto’s most successful breakout use case of the year.
Read more: Web3 Watch: Polymarket enters the spotlight amid turbulent week in politics
In the category of politics alone, at least $653 million of bets are currently being placed across the top 10 betting markets. Issues range from the eventual winner of the 2024 presidential election to the probability of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite US participants only being able to view the prediction markets.
The platform is built on a public blockchain, ensuring that all transactions are transparent, unable to be censored and carried out quickly and accurately by smart contracts. That also makes it readily accessible to anyone — unlike traditional prediction market services, which are often restricted by financial regulations.
Yet, Polymarket is more than a vehicle of mere financial speculation. Prediction markets have long been touted as a more reliable source of “truth” over traditional polling. The idea is simple: Bettors place their money on the outcomes they believe will happen, with the possibility of financial loss motivating them to be as accurate as possible. In turn, that drive for profit produces valuable foresight into future events. These predictions help others understand market trends and make informed decisions to mitigate risks and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
When Biden announced his official exit from the presidential race Sunday, the Polymarket odds for whether he would stay in the race adjusted noticeably faster to the real-time information than most mainstream media outlets.
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In a community note for the above post, X users clarified that Polymarket odds on the aforementioned market still managed to beat most news wires by a few minutes, though not by hours as it originally suggested.
Read more: How Biden ending his re-election campaign could impact bitcoin
However, regulatory approval for Web3-based prediction markets remains highly uncertain in the US. Back in March, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Rostin Behnam publicly stated that the agency is still in the process of amending rules around prediction markets to “ensure a level playing field.” In 2022, the CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4 million.
Over the past seven days, data from Google Trends has shown that search volumes for Polymarket have been consistently inching higher. In fact, they even surpassed searches relating to the expected launch of ether ETFs.
Launched in 2020, Polymarket has raised a total of $70 million in funding so far. Most recently, the company announced a $45 million Series B round in May from investors including Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and Vitalik Buterin.
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- Elections
- Polymarket
- Trading
- US politics