Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of the Maelstrom fund, is doubling down on his bullish Bitcoin thesis. He expects the largest cryptocurrency to 'explode' past $90,000 on its way to $126,000, a target he calls a 'foregone conclusion.'
Bitcoin is currently trading between roughly $80,793 and $89,368. Hayes sees this consolidation as a launchpad.
The Macro Case for Six Figures
Hayes' thesis rests on a familiar engine: money printing. He points to a $9 trillion expansion in the U.S. money supply as the primary catalyst. Beyond that, he cites massive capital spending tied to AI infrastructure and potential wartime financing dynamics as forces driving liquidity into risk assets. He anticipates a decisive bullish phase beginning around February 28, 2026.
Beyond $126K: The Longer-Term Roadmap
The $126,000 target is just the appetizer. Hayes sees Bitcoin reaching $200,000 to $250,000 by the end of 2026, driven by continued Federal Reserve money printing and AI-related investment. He has floated a long-term potential of $1 million, contingent on aggressive U.S. monetary policy. Before the next surge, Hayes acknowledges a potential pullback into the $80,000 to $90,000 range.
How Maelstrom Is Positioning
Hayes' fund, Maelstrom, is positioned aggressively. Rather than simply loading up on Bitcoin, it has concentrated heavily in altcoins, including HYPE, ZE, and NEAR. These are leveraged plays on the broader thesis: altcoins historically outperform during a Bitcoin-led rally but get crushed harder on the downside.