Half of the months over the past two years have delivered positive returns for Bitcoin, a trend an economist identifies as a strong indicator of future gains.
Economist Timothy Peterson stated that 50% of the past 24 months have been positive, implying an 88% chance Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now. In 2025, Bitcoin saw gains in January, April, May, June, July, and September.
Peterson utilizes this metric, counting positive months in any 24-month period, to pinpoint potential inflection points. This forecast arrives as Bitcoin's price is trading nearly 25% below its year-to-date level.
Market sentiment remains cautious, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index registering "Extreme Fear." However, a decline in social media predictions for Bitcoin's price is viewed by some as a healthy sign of sentiment returning to neutral.