Bitcoin is starting the second week of June in damage control, with traders warning the bottom is still months away. After a bearish weekly close, BTC saw modest relief but analysts like Mark Cullen expect sideways action through June, with the ultimate low not until late Q3. Crypto commentator ColinTalksCrypto echoed this, noting BTC closed below its 200-week SMA, predicting a bounce of 1-3 months before a drop to new lows in Q4.
BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Mark Cullen/X
US inflation data this week, including May CPI and PPI, is set to test markets as rate hike expectations grow. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a base case of two rate hikes by early 2027, a dramatic shift from earlier expectations of cuts. South Korea's stock market fell 8% at Monday's open, highlighting global volatility.
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
The US-Iran war continues to fuel uncertainty, with oil prices rising above $95 per barrel. President Trump's assurances of a peace deal have done little to stabilize risk assets.
Onchain indicators from CryptoQuant suggest the worst sell-off may be over. The spent output profit ratio (SOPR) for long-term and short-term holders has fallen significantly, and supply in profit has dropped to roughly 47%. Crypto sentiment is at extreme fear, with the Fear & Greed Index at 8/100, a level historically associated with market bottoms.
Bitcoin supply in profit. Source: CryptoQuant