Bitcoin is struggling to break through the $82,000 resistance level and now trades near $78,000. A crypto research group, XWIN Research Japan, says multiple on-chain signals point to a growing fragility in the market.
According to their analysis, the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) has surged to nearly 14.9%, meaning traders are taking on more debt to bet on higher prices. This increases the risk of a sharp liquidation event.
At the same time, US Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $1 billion in outflows over the past week, and the Coinbase Premium-a measure of institutional demand-has been negative for an extended period.
Adding to the pressure, the US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to near 4.6%, and the 30-year yield is above 5%, reinforcing expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer.
Despite the bearish signals, XWIN Research notes that Long-term Holders control over 15 million BTC, and stablecoin inflows into Binance are growing-suggesting potential liquidity waiting on the sidelines.
Key support is in the $78,000-$79,000 range. If it fails, selling pressure is expected to accelerate. But a recovery in ETF inflows and a return of institutional demand could turn the tide. Bitcoin is currently trading at $78,194, down 1.2% on the day.