Bitcoin is trading near $74,420, up over 13% since late February, significantly outperforming traditional assets like the S&P 500 and gold. This rally coincides with a conditional two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, easing geopolitical risk.
Analysts point to a shift in market sentiment. Data from the options market shows the 25-delta skew, a measure of bearish positioning, has improved from -10% to -4.5%, signaling reduced demand for downside protection.
The move is being driven by spot market buying, not leverage. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $786 million inflow last week, indicating strong institutional demand. Andri Fauzan Adziima of Bitrue notes this, combined with declining futures open interest, points to 'deleveraging and healthier momentum.'
Experts warn risks remain. Sticky inflation, restrictive Federal Reserve policy, and a potential breakdown of the Middle East truce could reintroduce volatility. Despite falling crude oil prices, users on prediction platform Myriad assign a 75% chance that oil's next major move is a pump to $120 per barrel.