Bitcoin's long-term holder cohort continues to grow, with LTH Realized Supply climbing significantly. However, a key profitability gauge, the seven-day moving average of SOPR, has fallen below 1.0 for five consecutive days. This indicates that while more coins are aging into long-term holder status, some are being sold at a loss.
The expansion of LTH Realized Supply suggests more supply is becoming inactive, a structurally constructive sign. This trend has been observed over the past year, signaling an increase in long-term holding. Unlike the 2022 bear market, current data suggests consolidation near $75,000 rather than a broad distribution event.
The caution stems from holder behavior at the point of sale. Repeated dips in LTH SOPR below 1.0 since February show long-term holders periodically selling at a loss. The current reading of 0.979 follows a deeper drop in late March and early April. Analysts note that sustained LTH SOPR below 1.0, coupled with a decrease in realized supply, would signal a more significant regime change. For now, recurring shallow dips with quick recoveries are seen as local stress rather than a bearish reset. At press time, BTC traded around $77,880.
