Bitcoin pulled back below $81,000 after narrowly missing a test of the closely watched 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near $83,300. The broader crypto market also traded lower, with the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index losing more than 2% over the past 24 hours.
The 200-day SMA is widely regarded as a barometer of long-term market strength. A sustained move above it would reinforce the narrative that the bear market ended during February's dip below $63,000. However, historical precedent gives reason for caution. In late March 2022, BTC briefly broke above the 200-day SMA before collapsing toward $20,000 by end of June.
Analysts at Marex identified three catalysts for further upside: spot buying into strength, tightening exchange supply, and constructive derivatives markets. Alex Kuptsikevich of FxPro noted that the recent pullback coincided with the RSI touching the overbought zone, a pattern that previously preceded sharp selloffs in August, October, and January.
In traditional markets, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eased to 4.32%, a potentially positive development for risk assets. The Bank of Japan continued intervening in FX markets, while several Asian currencies remained under pressure from the oil price spike triggered by the Iran war. Nasdaq futures hovered near record highs.