India just pulled the plug on Polymarket. The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology issued a formal blocking order on May 21, 2026, cutting ISP-level access for the world's second-most-populous country.
Kalshi, the US-regulated prediction market, is reportedly next. A blocking directive is expected by May 23.
This crackdown has been months in the making. On April 25, MeitY issued an advisory naming Polymarket and warning VPN providers against enabling access. Then on May 1, India's new Online Gaming Rules took effect, reclassifying prediction markets as "money games" under illegal betting laws.
Both platforms continued accepting Indian users after the advisory, accelerating enforcement. Several local Indian prediction platforms have already shut down.
Polymarket operates on the Polygon blockchain, settled in USDC, and has become a global political betting hub. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated in the US and accepts crypto deposits. India is blocking both, making a categorical judgment: prediction markets are gambling, regardless of regulatory packaging.
India is one of the largest retail crypto markets. The VPN warning is key: pressuring VPN providers sets a precedent beyond prediction markets. Some Indian activity will likely migrate to less regulated offshore platforms.
The key variable is whether other major economies follow India's lead.