A new report from quantum computing research firm Project Eleven warns that quantum computers could breach Bitcoin's encryption by 2030, putting approximately 6.9 million BTC-worth roughly $560 billion at current prices-at direct risk. These coins reside in older address formats that expose public keys directly on the blockchain.
Newer address types, such as those starting with "bc1," hash the public key before recording it on-chain, offering added protection. However, millions of coins, including some believed to belong to Bitcoin's pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto, remain in legacy addresses with visible public keys.
Project Eleven estimates a greater than 50% likelihood that quantum computers will crack these protections by 2033, with 2030 representing a more aggressive but plausible timeline. The report emphasizes that quantum progress will likely come in explosive bursts, not as a gradual rise. Recent research has validated cracking a 15-bit elliptic curve key using quantum methods, a significant step toward the 256-bit keys Bitcoin uses.
Bitcoin's decentralized governance complicates any cryptographic migration; past upgrades like SegWit took roughly four years from proposal to activation. Project Eleven argues that if the threat materializes by 2030, starting migration efforts in 2029 is too late.
Several blockchain projects are developing post-quantum solutions, and NIST is standardizing quantum-resistant algorithms. Bitcoin itself lacks a formal roadmap for quantum migration, with no Bitcoin Improvement Proposal on the topic gaining significant traction. Holders of Bitcoin in older P2PKH addresses are advised to move funds to newer formats as a precautionary measure.