Tom Lee presented at the 3rd Futu Expo 2026 in Hong Kong, suggesting Ethereum may be close to a cyclical turn. He compared Ethereum's recent price action to the S&P 500 declines in 1987 and 2011, noting a 93% correlation. According to Lee, if these analogs hold, Ethereum has either already bottomed or is doing so now.
Lee also pointed to Ethereum's realized price, currently at $2,241, indicating that the average holder is 22% underwater. This level, he said, is similar to where past reversals began. He emphasized that Ethereum does not need a perfect macro backdrop to stabilize; it just needs to reach a point of holder exhaustion, which he believes is here.
Lee highlighted Ethereum's long-term performance, noting a 49,000% return over the past decade, outpacing other assets like Bitcoin and Nvidia. At press time, ETH traded at $2,147.