Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, asserts that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued when compared to gold and global money supply, indicating a potential for a price reversal. Mow stated that Bitcoin is between 24% and 66% below its trend relative to gold's market cap or global money supply, while gold appears overextended.
Mow also referenced Bitcoin's Z-score, a metric measuring price deviation from its historical average. Historically, when the Z-score of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio falls below -2, major price rallies have followed. The current Z-score stands at approximately -1.24. Data shows that when this metric dropped below -3 in November 2022, following the FTX collapse, Bitcoin's price surged over 150% in the subsequent 12 months. A similar pattern occurred during the March 2020 COVID crash, where a Z-score below -2 preceded a Bitcoin rally of over 300%.
This perspective contrasts with other analysts who forecast further declines for Bitcoin due to market uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, with some predicting a drop to $50,000.