Cboe Global Markets, a major options exchange, is stepping into prediction markets with Cboe Predicts. The new product offers event contracts on the daily closing level of the S&P 500, but with a twist: a three-outcome payout model instead of simple yes/no.
Traders can receive a full $100 payout for an exact outcome, a partial payout in the “Plus Zone” for correctly calling the market's direction, or $0 if they’re wrong. The contracts use Mini-SPX (XSP) as the underlying and are cleared through the Options Clearing Corporation.
Cboe has partnered with Charles Schwab to distribute the contracts to retail investors. The rollout is expected in the second quarter of 2026, with June as the target. The Schwab partnership was formalized on June 19, 2026.
Unlike competitors Polymarket and Kalshi, Cboe Predicts avoids sports and politics, focusing solely on financial benchmarks. It leverages the deep liquidity of the SPX options complex, without needing to build a new market from scratch. With OCC clearing and Schwab's network, the exchange aims to capture a share of the growing event-contract market under a fully regulated framework.