Renewed US military strikes in July have sent oil traders scrambling to reprice risk across global energy markets, reviving memories of March’s historic price shock.
The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint for roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply, became the epicenter of the crisis earlier this year.
When the strait effectively closed on March 4, Brent crude prices surged more than 55%, rocketing from about $72 per barrel to highs near $120. The International Energy Agency called it the “greatest global energy security challenge in history.”
Partial recoveries in tanker flow eventually brought prices back toward a range of $70 to $82 by July.
A Reuters poll shows analysts have ratcheted up their 2026 Brent price forecasts to an average of $82.85 per barrel, a near 30% revision from a prior estimate of $63.85. Analysts project that sustained military action could push prices well above $100 per barrel.
The conflict is expected to add roughly 0.8% to global inflation.
One area with minimal direct impact has been the crypto market, which has largely traded on its own dynamics through the crisis.