Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran are hitting American wallets hard at the pump. The national average price for regular gasoline has now surged above $4 per gallon, while diesel has climbed to $5.13.
The price spikes are directly linked to fears over potential disruptions to global oil supply chains. Market sentiment is reflecting this volatility, though short-term concerns are easing slightly.
The probability of crude oil hitting a new all-time high by the end of September has dropped to 6.5%, down from 9% just yesterday. However, longer-term forecasts remain elevated, with a 15.5% chance of a new record high by December 31.
Analysts are closely watching key factors including decisions from OPEC and the International Energy Agency, as well as any changes to U.S. energy sanctions policy. The situation underscores how regional conflicts can rapidly translate into domestic economic pressure.