Iran has launched a missile attack on Saudi Arabia, marking the first direct aggression between the two nations in several months, according to reports. This action ends a lull in the ongoing regional conflict that began in early 2026, which was triggered by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran.
The attack coincides with recent U.S. strikes on Iran and signals a potential escalation in tensions. In financial markets, the probability of a 2026 U.S.-Iran deal including Iranian reconstruction funding has dropped sharply, falling from 42% to about 25.5% in the past week.
Market participants view the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution as diminished. The assessed probability of the Iranian regime falling by September 2026 remains low, around 4%. Analysts say the renewed military actions point to continued volatility.
Key figures to watch include U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, whose actions could shape future negotiations or military strategy.