Iran's Revolutionary Guard attacked a cargo ship in the southern corridor of the Strait of Hormuz. A U.S. official confirmed the incident, which follows reports of more than 10 explosions in the Iranian port city of Jask.
This marks a significant escalation in the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The hostilities have intensified after a recent ceasefire collapsed, with Iran actively working to disrupt shipping lanes critical for global oil transportation.
Market pricing now reflects a higher perceived risk that Iran will successfully target shipping. The probability of a successful disruption by July 11 has risen sharply, indicating a shift in conflict scenarios.
Military and diplomatic responses will determine the trajectory of this crisis. Further actions by Iran's Revolutionary Guard or responses from the U.S. Department of Defense could lead to additional fluctuations in energy markets and prediction pricing.