Jerome Powell will step down as Federal Reserve Chair by May 15, 2026, ending a tenure that began in 2018. Powell will remain on the Board of Governors until 2028. His final FOMC meeting was marked by significant dissent, with four members breaking ranks-the highest number since the 1990s.
Kevin Warsh is expected to be confirmed as the next Fed Chair, with prediction markets pricing a 95.8% chance of confirmation by May 15. The transition occurs amid geopolitical tensions and elevated global energy prices.
Markets are pricing a 98.8% probability that Powell will be out by May 31, 2026, reflecting strong confidence in the leadership change. Observers are watching Senate votes, particularly statements from key senators like Thom Tillis, for further confirmation signals.