Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says he will stay on as governor, calling President Trump's recent attacks "unprecedented." The statement dampens speculation of an imminent departure.
Betting markets predict a 4.9% chance Powell steps down as chair by May 14, up slightly from yesterday. The likelihood jumps to 73.5% for May 15, suggesting traders expect a key event after that date. By June 30, confidence in a departure reaches 99.4%.
Trading volumes are modest. Analysts warn a single large order on the thin May 15 contract could move prices sharply. Powell's public commitment reduces the case for an early exit.
Attention now shifts to President Trump's next moves and whether the Senate Banking Committee acts on Kevin Warsh's nomination. Either development could accelerate the timeline.