Kevin Warsh Confirmed as Fed Governor, Poised to Become Next Chair

The U.S. Senate has confirmed Kevin Warsh as a Federal Reserve Governor by a 51-45 vote, setting the stage for him to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. Powell’s term expires in May 2026. President Donald Trump nominated Warsh, and market participants now see his confirmation as chair as all but certain.

Prediction markets show a 99.9% probability of Warsh being confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15, and a 99.4% probability that Powell will be out by May 31. Markets also assign a 0.1% likelihood of a Fed rate cut before Warsh’s confirmation.

Warsh’s ascension marks a pivotal shift in U.S. monetary policy leadership.