Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin warns traders pricing a “Trump always chickens out” trade face a rude awakening regarding Middle East conflict severity. He cautions that geopolitical control extends beyond the President alone.
If crude oil trades above $100 per barrel through Q2 and Q3, Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation could rise by one percentage point. This environment risks stagflation, mirroring the S&P 500 stagnation of the 1970s.
Market disruption persists even if the Strait of Hormuz opens, as Gulf oil infrastructure requires months to rebuild. Twenty percent of global oil supply passes through this critical waterway.
Elevated energy prices threaten to quash interest rate cuts stimulative to risk assets. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed higher energy costs push overall inflation up, clouding central bank forecasts.
Rate cut odds vanished for the upcoming April meeting, while a 12% probability exists for an interest rate hike according to Chicago Mercantile Exchange data.
