A cluster of newly created accounts on the prediction market platform Polymarket has generated significant profits, reportedly hundreds of thousands of dollars, by betting on a US-Iran ceasefire.
These bets, placed just hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, occurred despite escalating rhetoric from President Trump and a lack of public signals indicating an imminent deal.
Analysis of Polymarket's blockchain data reveals that at least 50 new accounts placed substantial "Yes" bets on the ceasefire shortly before Trump's announcement. These were the initial wagers from these wallets. One account, created on the same day, turned a $72,000 investment into a $200,000 profit. Another wallet, established the previous day, profited over $125,000.
While the contract is currently labeled "disputed" by Polymarket due to ongoing regional restrictions and missile attacks, public blockchain data cannot identify the individuals behind these new wallets. Polymarket utilizes proxy smart contract wallets, allowing a single user to operate multiple accounts.
Republican Congressman Blake Moore expressed concern, stating it's "highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades" and suggests "insiders with access to information ahead of the public." He emphasized the need for restrictions to prevent government or military officials from profiting from their positions.
These events echo previous instances where prediction market bets have fueled public and congressional questions about the use of inside information. Bipartisan legislative efforts are underway to expand the definition of insider trading to encompass prediction markets, a move acknowledged as necessary by major platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.