EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is drawing a line in the sand. The deal between Brussels and Washington must land at a 15% all-inclusive tariff ceiling, matching the parameters set in the Turnberry joint statement from 2025.
This statement comes as President Donald Trump floats raising tariffs on EU products to 25% on cars alone, citing what he sees as foot-dragging on implementation. Šefčovič’s remarks are a quiet but firm reminder that the EU considers the Turnberry framework settled law.
The Turnberry joint statement, signed on August 21, 2025, commits the US to capping tariffs on most EU exports at 15%, while the EU would lower duties on American goods. By May 20, 2026, the EU Council and European Parliament reached a political agreement on implementation, including safeguard mechanisms and a sunset clause.
Trump has threatened to push tariffs on EU autos, steel, and aluminium beyond 15%. US officials have also floated new tariffs related to forced labor and excess industrial capacity. For European manufacturers, a 15% tariff on a German sedan is painful but manageable-a 25% tariff could reshape supply chains and investment decisions.
The automotive sector is most exposed. A jump from 15% to 25% tariffs would force higher prices for US consumers, margin compression for manufacturers, or accelerated production shifts to the US. The safeguard mechanisms from May 2026 become the EU’s first line of defense against escalation.