The Senate Banking Committee has advanced Kevin Warsh's nomination for Federal Reserve Chair. Simultaneously, the Justice Department has dropped its probe into current Chair Jerome Powell.
Prediction markets now price the probability of Warsh's confirmation by May 15 at 96.3%, up from 30% just one week ago. The contract for confirmation by June 30 stands at 99.6%.
Meanwhile, the market for Powell's departure by May 14 sits at a modest 5.2%. However, May 31 and June 30 contracts are at 96.8% and 98.9%, respectively, signaling traders expect the transition in the second half of May.
Trading volume reached $65,432 in the last 24 hours. The order book shows significant liquidity, with $11,481 needed to move the May 15 market by 5 percentage points. The largest single move was a 2-point spike at 2:59 PM yesterday.
At 96 cents per YES share, the potential return on a Warsh confirmation bet is minimal-just 1.04x. The primary risk is Senate procedural delays. The NO side, at 4 cents, offers a 25x payout if confirmation slips past May 15.
Watch for statements from Senate Banking Committee Republicans and any changes to the Senate floor schedule that could shift odds.