President Trump asserts the Iran conflict's impact on gas prices is fleeting, expecting recovery once the Strait of Hormuz reopens. However, trading volumes remain robust, reflecting skepticism among traders who note a continued bearish trend. The odds for an early April 7th ceasefire have fallen to 8.5%, underscoring the lack of faith in swift resolutions. Meanwhile, April 15th and April 30th ceasefire odds have also declined to 18.5% and risen to 38.5% respectively. Strong USDC trading indicates heightened interest in predicting the outcome, with a 2-point drop observed this morning due to Trump's latest remarks.
Iran's unwavering position keeps traders cautious, emphasizing the need for diplomatic breakthroughs. Watch for signs of progress from intermediary nations like Oman or Qatar, or from key figures such as Senator Marco Rubio and Steve Hegseth, which may sway the market significantly.