Former President Donald Trump indicated the Federal Reserve may postpone interest rate cuts until the ongoing U.S., Israel, and Iran conflict concludes. The military engagements, which began with joint strikes on Iranian targets, have expanded into a broader regional war, escalating economic uncertainties.
Market pricing reflects a 68.5% probability of no rate cuts in 2026, down slightly from 70% a day ago. The odds of a rate cut in June or July stand at less than 1%. Analysts view Trump's statement as reinforcing expectations that geopolitical instability will delay monetary easing.
Key events to watch include diplomatic efforts, statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and the upcoming FOMC meetings in June and July.