The Federal Reserve's path to easing just got rockier. New data shows the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026, and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index hit 3.5%. The jump is tied directly to oil supply disruptions from the Iran conflict, which has pushed crude prices above $100 a barrel.
These numbers have sharply reduced market expectations for a rate cut at the June 2026 FOMC meeting. On Polymarket, odds of a “YES” outcome on that contract dropped to just 2.3%, down from 3%. The market broadly anticipates that persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty will keep the Fed on hold.