Lionel Messi is the prohibitive favorite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Ball, with prediction markets pricing a 90% probability for the Argentine star. Argentina faces Spain in the tournament final. Messi leads the Golden Boot race with eight goals and four assists. Spain's Rodri is the nearest contender at a 5% probability. The final's outcome will heavily influence these odds.
A decisive performance by Messi could solidify his standing. Conversely, a standout showing from Rodri and a Spanish victory could challenge Messi's frontrunner status. The result will also impact markets for the Silver Ball, affecting players like Kylian Mbappé.