Polymarket
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worldTrump Rules Out US Ground Troops in Iran, Boosting Ceasefire Odds
President Trump's announcement that the U.S. will not deploy ground troops to Iran has increased optimism for a ceasefire by April 30, with market odds rising to 38.5%. Key diplomatic and military developments are being watched closely.
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worldUS Deploys 18 Additional A-10 Aircraft to Middle East
The US military sends more A-10s to the Middle East, prompting traders to adjust bets on the probability of entering Iran.
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financeIran's New Supreme Leader Vows Resistance Amid Market Volatility
Mojtaba Khamenei pledges continued support for resistance, pushing regime fall odds down to 10% on Polymarket.
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financeJPMorgan Considers Entry Into Prediction Markets
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon signals potential move into prediction markets amid growing competition from crypto firms and Goldman Sachs.
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cryptoBrazil's B3 Launches Bitcoin-Linked Event Contracts
Brazil's B3 exchange introduces regulated bitcoin-linked derivatives for wealthy investors, marking a major step in the country's financial innovation.
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financeCFTC Warns Prediction Market Traders Against Insider Trading
CFTC enforcement director David Miller cautions insider trading in prediction markets, stressing legal compliance and regulatory scrutiny.
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cryptoStablecoin Firm Bets on Fundraising Success, Sparks Controversy
Stablecoin startup P2P.me faced backlash after placing bets on its fundraising through Polymarket, causing confusion among investors and undermining trust.
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techPrediction Markets Face Legal Storm Over Insider Trading and Sports Bets
Rapidly growing prediction markets face a barrage of US legislation and state lawsuits targeting insider trading and the classification of sports bets as gambling.