Chamath Palihapitiya: Taiwan's Chip Dominance at Risk in 18 Months

Chamath Palihapitiya, the venture capitalist and former Facebook executive, warns that Taiwan's grip on advanced chip manufacturing could end within 18 months. He argues the U.S. is nearing domestic production of comparable chips, which would fundamentally alter Taiwan's strategic leverage.

TSMC currently controls over 90% of global production at advanced nodes of 7 nanometers and below. The U.S. CHIPS and Science Act has allocated over $52 billion for domestic fabrication. TSMC itself is building multiple facilities in Arizona, with mass production expected between 2026 and 2028. Intel and Samsung are expanding U.S. operations as well.

Palihapitiya's 18-month timeline is aggressive. Most industry roadmaps target meaningful domestic production by 2026, with full-scale advanced manufacturing likely in 2027 or 2028.

For investors, TSMC is hedging its geographic risk by building in the U.S., Japan, and Germany. Key leading indicators are fab construction timelines and yield rates at new facilities.