Autonomous robots and drones could drastically reduce food delivery costs, potentially bringing them as low as $1 per order. Barclays reports this shift could unlock billions in annual profits for the global food delivery industry.
Current autonomous delivery costs range from $5 to $7 per order, already $3 to $4 cheaper than traditional rider delivery. In the long term, costs could fall to $1 per order, representing potential savings of $8 to $9. Barclays forecasts this could unlock approximately $16 billion in annual global profitability for delivery platforms.
Autonomous delivery penetration is currently minimal, less than 1% of global orders. However, it's projected to reach 2% by 2030 and 10% by 2035.
DoorDash and Meituan are seen as near-term beneficiaries due to early deployments and investment in automation. Uber is also considered well-positioned, with Prosus a projected long-term beneficiary. Delivery Hero, Grab, and Talabat are expected to benefit in the medium to longer term as automation pilots scale.