Samsung Electronics reported a Q1 net profit of 47.1 trillion won, beating market expectations on the strength of its chip division and the start of HBM4 mass production for Nvidia's platform. The news signals strong near-term demand for advanced memory chips critical to AI computing.
Polymarket bettors are now pricing Nvidia as a near lock to be the largest company by market cap at the end of April at 99.9% YES. However, the June 30 contract dropped from 92% to 85.5% inside 24 hours, suggesting traders see mounting risk over a longer window.
Trading volume for the June contract remains thin at just over $8,600 in actual USDC traded daily. Analysts point to geopolitical uncertainty, particularly the U.S.-Iran conflict, as the key variable factoring into the declining odds. A YES share on the June contract currently costs 85 cents, while a NO share at 15 cents would pay $1-a 6.7x return-if Nvidia loses the top spot by mid-2026.
Samsung’s production ramp-up underscores strong chip demand ahead, but the market is pricing in external threats to supply chains that could reshape the competitive landscape before the end of the second quarter.