A new study predicts that by the 2090s, nearly one-third of the global population, approximately 2.6 billion people, will confront compounded heatwave and drought conditions five times more frequently. Researchers from Germany and China analyzed data on these combined extremes, which amplify impacts beyond individual events.
These hot-dry extremes lead to severe consequences, including increased heat-related deaths, heightened wildfire risks, significant agricultural losses, and socio-economic instability. Climate scientist Di Cai noted that heat and drought amplify each other, resulting in water scarcity and volatile food prices.
The research, based on 152 climate simulations and current emissions trajectories, projects a global temperature rise of 2.7 °C by 2100. This rise is expected to increase the occurrence of compound hot-dry events by 2.4 times and extend their duration.
Tropical and low-income nations, which have contributed the least to global warming, are projected to be disproportionately affected. "It's hard to fund air conditioning. It's hard to fund health care. There is no backup if water runs out," stated Cai, emphasizing the issue's impact on basic daily life.
However, the study highlights that renewed commitments to the Paris Agreement and additional long-term pledges could reduce the number of people exposed to these extremes by one-third. Full implementation of these commitments could decrease the affected population from 28 percent to 18 percent, potentially sparing nearly 900 million people.