Iran's Foreign Ministry flatly denied agreeing to hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, directly contradicting US President Donald Trump's claim. Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated the enriched uranium would "not be transferred anywhere," calling the demand a "non-starter."
Trump made his claim around April 16-17, but US-Iran talks collapsed over a fundamental disagreement on enrichment pause duration: the US pushed for a 20-year moratorium, Iran offered five years. The International Atomic Energy Agency estimates Iran has about 440.9 kg of 60%-enriched uranium, dangerously close to weapons-grade threshold.
Prediction markets reacted swiftly, with the probability of a uranium handover by 2026 dropping to the low-to-mid 40s. For oil markets, the collapse of de-escalation narratives pushes crude prices higher. Geopolitical risk remains a key driver for macro sentiment, affecting assets like Bitcoin amid the discord.