The ongoing military conflict between Iran and a US-led coalition is causing a severe energy crisis, directly threatening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil and LNG supplies. Disruptions to shipping have already pushed energy prices upward, echoing the supply shocks of the 1970s.
Prediction markets now show a 56.5% probability of a US-Iran ceasefire extension by June 7, up from 36% a day ago. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 remain low at 2.4%.
Key actors to watch include regional military commanders and international diplomatic channels. Further disruption at the Strait of Hormuz could intensify market volatility.