Global shipping firms are redesigning trade routes to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has plunged 97% since early 2026 amid Iran's military escalation. The chokepoint once moved 20 million barrels of oil daily. Now, Brent crude has surged past $90 per barrel.
Prediction markets price a 45% chance that 20 ships will transit the strait by May 31, down from 53%. The odds of WTI crude hitting $150 in May stand at just 2.6%. Analysts say the blockade appears deliberate and persistent, forcing a strategic shift in global commerce. Key actors to watch include Donald Trump and Iranian leadership, as diplomatic or military decisions could rapidly alter the situation.