Iran’s regime is facing increasing instability due to weakened military capabilities and surging social unrest. The odds of regime fall by June 30 stand at 8.5%, down from 12% a day prior.
Despite intense pressure, traders remain cautious, reflecting the regime’s historical resilience. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 is priced at 99.6% YES, signaling strong confidence in a negotiated resolution.
The regime fall market sees $92,784 in daily trading volume, with a large gap between apparent and real liquidity. A 5-point movement requires $7,670, indicating moderate market depth.
Key figures such as Mojtaba Khamenei and the IRGC Supreme Council will be closely watched for signs of leadership shifts or unexpected Assembly of Experts meetings, which could signal further volatility.
At 8.5¢ per YES share, investors can earn an 11.8x return if the regime collapses by June 30. This offers a high-risk, high-reward opportunity for those betting on internal fractures or external pressures.