Iran has announced permanent restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. The move, reported by Iran's Tasnim News Agency, is a direct response to a joint U.S.-Israel military attack earlier this year. The decision effectively strands an estimated 2,000 vessels and signals Tehran's intent to maintain long-term strategic leverage.
The announcement comes despite a fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, and ongoing diplomatic efforts have failed to ease tensions. President Trump's administration has imposed a blockade on the strait, which the U.S. had considered lifting by the end of May. Prediction markets now show a sharp decline in the likelihood of normalized traffic by May 15, with the contract trading at just 2.5% YES. The probability of the U.S. lifting its blockade by May 31 has also fallen to 40%.
Key indicators to watch include any diplomatic statements from President Trump or CENTCOM, and potential intervention by the International Maritime Organization. Military posturing and further Iranian announcements could further shift market expectations in the coming weeks.