Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has formally ordered that the country’s enriched uranium stockpile must not leave Iranian soil. The directive, issued on May 21, directly rebuffs Washington’s insistence that any final peace deal must address the uranium question.
US President Trump has taken the opposite position, stating the uranium stockpile "will not" remain in Iran and suggesting it could be destroyed after transfer out of the country.
Two senior Iranian sources confirm a solid internal consensus against exporting uranium, but indicate Iran would be open to diluting the stockpile under supervision from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Dilution under IAEA oversight would reduce the material’s weapons potential without Iran surrendering physical custody.
The ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran has held since February 28. Multiple negotiation sessions have failed to resolve core sticking points: the uranium transfer question, ballistic missiles, and Iran’s support for regional proxy forces. Khamenei’s directive freezes the most contentious issue in place-removing it from the bargaining table entirely.
Iran sits on some of the world’s largest proven petroleum reserves. If negotiations collapse entirely, the US could reimpose or tighten sanctions on Iranian oil exports, constraining global supply and potentially triggering secondary sanctions affecting trading partners. Traders should watch for any shift in ceasefire rhetoric, unexpected IAEA inspection reports, or changes in sanctions policy.