Iran's most critical oil infrastructure, Kharg Island, has effectively gone offline. The terminal, responsible for over 90% of Iran's crude exports, has not loaded a single tanker in over 10 days, satellite imagery and shipping data confirm.
The shutdown is not due to mechanical failure or weather. It is a direct result of a US Navy blockade that has locked down Iran's entire coastline.
Satellite images reveal an additional crisis: a 71-square-kilometer oil slick near the facility, with an estimated 80,000 barrels leaked into the Persian Gulf. The US military has actively engaged Iranian tankers attempting to breach the blockade. In just nine days, the blockade has impacted an estimated 69 million barrels of crude.
Kharg Island is the lynchpin of Iran's economy, handling over 90% of its oil shipments under normal conditions. Shutting it down effectively eliminates Iran's primary source of hard currency on the global market.
Meanwhile, crypto prediction markets had priced in a 60.5% probability of normalized traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30. That deadline has passed, but low liquidity in these markets suggests caution in interpreting the figure.