Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill, and a return to normal operations is weeks away, according to the world’s largest tanker operator.
The severe disruption follows a blockade initiated by Iran, triggered by a US-Israeli air conflict earlier this year that resulted in the death of Iran’s supreme leader. The vital maritime chokepoint is a critical artery for global energy shipments.
Market indicators reflect deepening pessimism about a swift resolution. The probability of maritime traffic normalizing by June 15 has plummeted, currently reflecting a negligible YES likelihood. Expectations for a July 15 normalization have also weakened, with market pricing showing only a modest chance of recovery by that date.
Observers are closely monitoring diplomatic channels between the United States and Iran, as well as the posture of the IRGC and US Navy in the region. Any shift in maritime insurance rates or fleet deployment announcements will serve as leading indicators for the resumption of commercial transit.