Reports indicate former President Donald Trump is considering renewed military strikes on Iran as Israel prepares for potential conflict escalation. This marks a major reversal after the uneasy ceasefire following joint US-Israeli strikes in February 2026, which targeted Iran's nuclear and military programs.
Prediction markets are reacting sharply. The contract for a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by June 30, 2026, is now trading at 13.5% YES, down from 18% a day ago. Analysts say the shift reflects growing belief that military action will derail diplomatic efforts.
Investors should watch for official statements from Trump, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Any developments at upcoming United Nations meetings could further alter market expectations.