Former U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated openness to a 20-year moratorium on Iran's nuclear program, a significant reversal from his earlier insistence on permanent dismantlement. The negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey, have been stalled over uranium enrichment duration. Iran's withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2020 and suspension of IAEA protocols in 2021 set a tense backdrop. The 20-year limit, while a compromise, suggests room for further negotiation.
Prediction markets reacted with a slight uptick: a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 is now priced at 61.5% YES. The likelihood for a deal by June 30 stands at 27.5% YES.