The United States and Israel have launched a new military campaign in the Gulf of Oman. The operation, named "Operación Furia Épica," is designed to degrade Iran's strategic military and missile capabilities, particularly near the critical Strait of Hormuz.
The campaign includes strikes on Iranian installations, a response to Iran's recent assault on commercial vessels. Military officials report significant success in dismantling Iran's naval and aerial defense systems.
This military escalation is directly influencing financial markets and diplomatic forecasts. Prediction markets now show the odds of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by mid-August 2026 have fallen to just 0.5%, down from 1% a day prior. The likelihood of any agreement by September stands at 12.5%, reflecting a consistent decline in optimism.
Key market indicators:
- Current odds for a deal by August 13, 2026: 1.6% YES.
- A consistent weekly decline in market confidence.
- The Gulf of Oman operation is seen as the primary driver of this negative sentiment.
The situation remains fluid. Future market movement will hinge on further military actions, public statements from negotiators like Abbas Araghchi or Steve Witkoff, and any announcements regarding sanctions or uranium enrichment from either side.