Fewer derivative traders are placing new bets on Bitcoin. Open interest is virtually flat at $55 billion, and volume dropped 21% to $30 billion. The market is waiting.
That wait may soon end. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant reports Bitcoin is nearing a test of two key metrics that have defined its market structure since early 2024. How it responds could determine the direction of the next significant move.
At the center is the Short-Term Holder MVRV, which measures whether recent buyers are sitting on gains or losses. Since 2024, it has printed lower highs even as Bitcoin’s price climbed. When BTC hit $72,000 in March 2024, MVRV peaked above 1.4. By November 2024, Bitcoin hit $106,000, but MVRV failed to reach that level. The same pattern repeated in July 2025 near $120,000.
The MVRV is now approaching that same descending trendline again. At the same time, Bitcoin is closing in on the Short-Term Holder Realized Price - the average cost of recent buyers. When Bitcoin trades below this level, recent buyers are underwater and more likely to sell. CryptoQuant says a confirmed move above the Realized Price, paired with MVRV above 1.0, would signal a structural regime change.
Other data points to continued caution. The Coinbase Premium Index, a gauge of US institutional demand, sits at -0.018%, indicating US spot buyers are not driving purchases. Bitcoin briefly touched $79,000 but has since pulled back to around $77,120.