The deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz endures as President Donald Trump confronts a deadline under the 1973 War Powers Resolution. The US maintains a naval blockade, Operation Epic Fury, despite a ceasefire extension in early April. Iran has responded with significant defenses, including mine-laying and high transit fees for vessels.
The Trump administration claims the ceasefire reset the War Powers clock, a point disputed by legal experts. Iran's peace proposal was rejected, and the US is forming a coalition to enforce sanctions and freedom of navigation. The situation affects roughly 15 million barrels of oil daily.
Prediction markets show a 32.5% chance the blockade will be lifted by May 31, down from 52% a week ago, suggesting participants see little likelihood of a near-term resolution.