Hyperliquid has entered the prediction market space. The Layer-1 blockchain activated HIP-4 on May 2, 2026, launching native outcome markets where contracts settle based on real-world events, resolving to either 0 or 1.
On launch day, over 6.05 million contracts changed hands.
Each contract trades as a probability, priced between 0.001 and 0.999. If the chosen outcome occurs, the contract settles at 1. If not, at 0.
The first market is a daily binary outcome tied to Bitcoin’s mark price, managed by Outcomexyz/Outcome.
Unlike perpetual futures, these outcome markets are fully collateralized, meaning no funding rates and no liquidation risk. The merged order book design allows Yes and No tokens to share liquidity rather than fragmenting it across separate pools.
Initial trading fees are zero during the testing phase, though builder fees on sell orders still apply.
HIP-4 is rolling out in two phases. The current phase features curated canonical markets. Phase two will open permissionless deployment, letting any builder create new markets accessible through any wallet interface. Future plans include multi-outcome markets with three or more possible results.
The announcement of HIP-4 on February 2, 2026, triggered a roughly 10% jump in Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE within 24 hours.
For investors, the zero-liquidation-risk design opens the door to a different type of trader-those seeking event-based exposure without managing margin. Risks include the need for reliable settlement mechanisms and potential manipulation in thinly traded permissionless markets.