Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of SkyBridge, says Bitcoin’s current bear market fits its traditional four-year cycle-despite muted volatility from institutional ETF inflows.
He argues long-term holders selling near the $100,000 mark contributed to recent weakness, but the cycle remains intact. “When you believe in something, you create a self-fulfilling prophecy,” he said.
Scaramucci had expected Bitcoin to hit $150,000 in 2025, fueled by anticipated pro-crypto policies under a potential Donald Trump administration. But the October 2025 crash-sending BTC from $126,000 to $60,000-upended that consensus.
He compares today’s apathy to late 2022, just before Bitcoin’s 2023 rebound following the FTX collapse: “It was at a period of great disinterest that the bull market started again.”
Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Iran conflict, have pressured risk assets. Bitcoin recently dipped below $69,000 as the S&P 500 broke below its 200-day moving average.
Some analysts warn BTC could fall another 50% if it stays tightly correlated with equities. Yet Scaramucci calls the current slump a “garden variety” correction-not a cycle breakdown.
He predicts choppy trading through most of 2026, with a renewed bull market igniting in the fourth quarter.