A Polymarket prediction contract asking whether Donald Trump will publicly insult someone on May 10, 2026, has surged to 99.9% probability, up from 90% in just 24 hours. The catalyst: a Trump post on Truth Social criticizing Democrats Eric Holder and Marc Elias.
Trump accused the two figures of election interference, using derogatory language. Market participants interpret this as fulfilling the contract's criteria for a public insult.
The May 12, 2026 contract now sits at 86%. Observers are watching for further statements or responses from the named individuals that could shift odds.